Solar in Maryland: the 2026 numbers
A household here spending $200 a month on electricity needs roughly a 7.9 kW array, which generates about 10,989 kWh in its first year. Bought outright, it returns its cost in year 10 and is worth $15,250 over 25 years — after discounting, after upkeep, and with no federal credit.
Our answer for Maryland: cash purchase
Of the four options, a cash purchase has the highest net present value at $15,250 , turning cash-positive in year 10 . Solar stops making sense in Maryland above roughly $4.93/W installed — if a quote comes in above that, the answer flips.
What Maryland gives you to work with
| Sunlight (specific yield) | 1391 kWh per installed kW per year — NREL PVWatts v8, Baltimore |
| Average residential rate | $0.218/kWh — EIA, May 2026 |
| Export credit | 100% of retail — Full retail net metering, with an SREC market on top that we do not model. |
| Federal credit on a purchase | None — §25D expired after December 31, 2025 |
| State incentives | Checked, and there is no cash incentive — reviewed 2026-08-15 |
The four options, run side by side
A household spending $200 a month on electricity, with the array sized to cover its usage, at the default $3.00/W installed cost. This is the same case the calculator below opens on. Net present value discounts future dollars at 5%, so these are not the inflated “lifetime savings” totals a sales quote shows.
| Option | Net present value | Payback | Cost per kWh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash purchase You pay for it. No fee, no interest, no escalator. | $15,250 | Year 10 | $0.189 |
| Solar loan Includes the 20% dealer fee that a low-APR solar loan hides in the financed price. | $6,002 | Year 19 | $0.252 |
| Lease You rent the system. The owner keeps the §48E credit. | $10,152 | Year 1 | $0.224 |
| PPA You buy the output per kWh, not the hardware. | $13,754 | Year 1 | $0.200 |
A cash purchase delivers electricity at $0.189/kWh against a retail rate of $0.218 — it undercuts the utility, which is the whole case in Maryland.
Best option: Cash purchase — $15,250 net present value over 25 years, paying back in year 10.
| Option | Owns it | 30% credit | Upfront | 25-yr NPV | Payback | Cost/kWh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash purchase | You | None | $23,700 | $15,250 | Year 10 | $0.189 |
| Solar loan | You | None | $0 | $6,002 | Year 19 | $0.252 |
| Lease | Provider | Indirect (§48E) | $0 | $10,152 | Year 1 | $0.224 |
| PPA | Provider | Indirect (§48E) | $0 | $13,754 | Year 1 | $0.200 |
What this calculation assumes, and where it can be wrong
Federal credit. The 30% federal residential credit (IRC §25D) expired for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. A 2026 cash or loan purchase receives no federal credit. Leases and PPAs remain eligible indirectly: the third-party owner claims the commercial credit (IRC §48E) and reflects part of it in the price offered, provided the system is placed in service by December 31, 2027.
Estimated §48E value in a lease or PPA quote: about $3,555 for this system, assuming the provider passes through half the credit. That share is our estimate, not a published figure.
Export credit. Full retail net metering, with an SREC market on top that we do not model.
State incentives. Two Maryland incentives are excluded, both deliberately. The $1,000 Residential Clean Energy Grant: sources conflict on whether it still exists — several 2026 guides list it as active, while the Maryland Energy Administration's own material indicates the original programme closed on 30 November 2024 and was succeeded by the Solar Access Program, which pays $750/kW up to $7,500 but only to low- and moderate-income households. Because the conflict is unresolved we model zero. The SREC market: Maryland SRECs traded around $40 and certified residential credits around $57.50 in 2026, but an SREC market has no guaranteed price and no guaranteed term, so treating it as a fixed 15-year payment the way New Jersey's SREC-II can be treated would be wrong. Most Maryland households will therefore do better than these figures show — check both before you buy.
- Cash purchase: No federal tax credit is applied: IRC §25D expired for systems placed in service after 2025-12-31.
- Solar loan: Financed amount includes a 20% dealer fee, which is why a $0-down loan quote costs more than the same system bought outright.
- Solar loan: No federal tax credit is applied: IRC §25D expired for systems placed in service after 2025-12-31.
- Lease: Pricing assumes the system owner claims the §48E credit and reflects part of it in your quote. The system must be placed in service by 2027-12-31 to qualify.
- PPA: Pricing assumes the system owner claims the §48E credit and reflects part of it in your quote. The system must be placed in service by 2027-12-31 to qualify.
Sunlight data: 1391 kWh per installed kW per year (verified — NREL PVWatts v8). Retail rate: $0.218/kWh.
Why Maryland lands where it does
Across the 50 states we model, Maryland ranks #8 on the value of a cash purchase, at $15,250 — behind Hawaii at $15,565 and ahead ofPennsylvania at $14,389 . The ordering is not the one people expect, and the reason is worth stating plainly: sunshine matters less than the price of the electricity you stop buying.
Maryland gets 1391 kWh per installed kW per year and pays $0.218 per kWh. Neither figure is extreme, so the outcome turns on the export rule and the state programme rather than on the weather.
Full retail export, and what it hides
Maryland credits exports at the full retail rate — Full retail net metering, with an SREC market on top that we do not model. That is the friendliest possible treatment, and it is why the numbers above are as strong as they are. It also means a battery buys you almost nothing financially here: if the grid already pays you retail for every exported kWh, storing that kWh to use later saves the same amount it would have earned. The value of storage in a full net-metering state is close to zero, and we say so on the battery calculator rather than selling you one.
The risk to watch is not the arithmetic but the rule. Full retail net metering is the concession utilities lobby hardest against, and California's move to NEM 3.0 cut export value to a quarter of retail. A 25-year model that assumes today's export rule survives all 25 years is making a policy bet, not just a financial one.
What the state actually pays you
Two Maryland incentives are excluded, both deliberately. The $1,000 Residential Clean Energy Grant: sources conflict on whether it still exists — several 2026 guides list it as active, while the Maryland Energy Administration's own material indicates the original programme closed on 30 November 2024 and was succeeded by the Solar Access Program, which pays $750/kW up to $7,500 but only to low- and moderate-income households. Because the conflict is unresolved we model zero. The SREC market: Maryland SRECs traded around $40 and certified residential credits around $57.50 in 2026, but an SREC market has no guaranteed price and no guaranteed term, so treating it as a fixed 15-year payment the way New Jersey's SREC-II can be treated would be wrong. Most Maryland households will therefore do better than these figures show — check both before you buy.
So there is no cash incentive to model. That matters more than it used to: while the 30% federal credit existed, a state with no programme of its own was still fine. Now, Maryland buyers are on their own entirely, and the whole case has to come from the bill savings.
The financing trap
A solar loan is worth $6,002 here against $15,250 for the same system bought outright — a gap of $9,249. The interest rate is not what causes that. A 20% dealer fee is embedded in the financed price, which is how a "1.99% APR" offer ends up costing more than a bank loan at 8%. It is rarely on the quote. Ask for it by name.
Lease and PPA look different from a purchase for a structural reason: the third-party owner still claims the 30% §48E credit, which a homeowner buying outright can no longer get. How much of that credit reaches you in the price is a negotiation, and we assume half. The owner also carries the upkeep and the inverter replacement that a buyer pays for. That is why they still trail a cash purchase here, though by much less than they would have in 2025. Both are tied to systems placed in service by December 31, 2027 — see the 2027 deadline.
Before you accept a Maryland quote
- Confirm it does not apply the expired 30% federal credit.
- Ask what export rate it assumed. Maryland credits exports at 100% of retail; if the quote valued every kWh at $0.218, its savings figure is defensible on today’s rules.
- Check the price per watt. Above about $4.93/W the purchase stops paying for itself in Maryland.
- Ask for the dealer fee on any financed offer, as a dollar amount.
- If it is a lease or PPA, ask for a placed-in-service commitment — §48E requires the system running by December 31, 2027.
More: the 2026 credit change, when solar is not worth it, our assumptions and sources.